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Interest rates are on the rise, with more increases expected by the end of the year. So how high will rates go? What is your rate rise action plan? What does this mean for savers? We discuss all of this below.
Higher interest rates are a worry for people with home loans and borrowers generally. But they are good news for older Australians who depend on income from bank deposits and young people trying to save for a deposit on their first home.
Rising interest rates are also a sign of a growing economy, which creates jobs and provides the income people need to pay their mortgages and other bills. By lifting interest rates, the Reserve Bank hopes to keep a lid on inflation and rising prices. Yes, it’s complicated.
How high will rates go?
On the 7th of June, the Reserve Bank lifted the official cash rate by 0.5 per cent bringing the cash rate to 0.85 per cent. Earlier in May, we saw a rise of 0.25 from the historic low cash rate of 0.1 per cent. The reason the cash rate is watched so closely is that it flows through to mortgages and other lending rates in the economy.
To tackle the rising cost of living, the Reserve Bank expects to lift the cash rate further, to around 2.5 per cent.i Inflation is currently running at 5.1 per cent, which means annual wage growth of 2.4 per cent is not keeping pace with rising prices.ii
So, what does this mean for household budgets?
Mortgage rates on the rise
The people most affected by rising rates are likely those who recently bought their first home. In a double whammy, after several years of booming house prices, the size of the average mortgage has also increased.
According to CoreLogic, even though price growth is slowing, the median home value rose 16.7 per cent nationally in the year to April to $748,635. Prices are higher in Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne.
CoreLogic estimates a 1 per cent rise would add $486 a month to repayments on the median new home loan in Sydney, and an additional $1,006 a month for a 2 per cent rise.
The big four banks have already passed on the Reserve Bank’s 0.25 per cent increase in the cash rate in full to their standard variable mortgage rates which range from 4.6 to 4.8 per cent. The lowest standard variable rates from smaller lenders are below 2 per cent.
Still, it’s believed most homeowners should be able to absorb a 2 per cent rise in their repayments.iii
The financial regulator, APRA now insists all lenders apply three percentage points on top of their headline borrowing rate, as a stress test on the amount you can borrow (up from 2.5 per cent prior to October 2021).iv
Whatever your circumstances, the shift from a low-interest rate, low inflation economic environment to rising rates and inflation is a signal that it’s time to revisit some of your financial assumptions.
The first thing you need to do is update your budget to factor in higher loan repayments and the rising cost of essential items such as food, fuel, power, childcare, health and insurance. You could then look for easy cuts from your non-essential spending on things like regular takeaways, eating out and streaming services.
If you have a home loan, then potentially the biggest saving involves absolutely no sacrifice to your lifestyle. Simply speak to your Adviser or directly with our Lending Team to discuss refinancing. Banks all offer lower rates to new customers than they do to existing customers, but you can often negotiate a lower rate simply by asking.
A Credit Adviser will be able to do the hard work and negotiating for you and help you secure a competitive loan.
Older Australians and young savers face a tougher task. Bank savings rates are generally non-negotiable, but it does pay to shop around.
By mid-May, only three of the big four banks had increased rates for savings accounts. Several lenders also announced increased rates for term deposits of up to 0.6 per cent.v
High-interest rates traditionally put a dampener on returns from shares and property, so commentators are warning investors to prepare for lower returns from these investments and superannuation.
That makes it more important than ever to ensure you are getting the best return on your savings and not paying more than necessary on your loans.
This information is provided by Invest Blue Pty Ltd (ABN 91 100 874 744). The information contained in this article is of general nature only and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. Therefore, before making any decision, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice with regards to those matters and seek personal financial, tax and/or legal advice prior to acting on this information. Read our Financial Services Guide for information about our services, including the fees and other benefits that AMP companies and their representatives may receive in relations to products and services provided to you.
